New Wave of Senate Polls: AZ, MO & NJ


In the race for Senator Flake’s seat in Arizona, Congresswoman Martha McSally leads Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema by three points, 45 percent to 42 percent. When pushed to choose a candidate, the 13 percent of Arizona’s undecided voters favor Sinema by a two-point margin, 51 percent to 49 percent.

A plurality of Arizona voters (48%) support confirming Judge Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, while 39 percent oppose his confirmation, and 13 percent aren’t sure. When asked about the allegations facing Judge Kavanaugh, 55 percent believe they are part of a smear campaign to discredit the Judge, while 45 percent view the allegations as credible.

“The process surrounding Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation is likely to be a motivating factor as Arizonans go to the polls this November,” said Macy Cambio, Vox Populi Polling’s Managing Director. “With a majority of Arizona voters supporting the Judge’s confirmation to the Supreme Court, Kyrsten Sinema faces a decision to either go along with Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and the Democratic Party leadership, or stand up for the wishes of Arizona voters and voice her support for his confirmation.”

The survey also found:

· Governor Doug Ducey is well positioned going into the final weeks of the campaign with 51 percent support compared to 35 percent for David Garcia.

· President Trump’s approval rating stands at 52% | 45%.



Vox Populi Polling’s new Missouri poll shows the Senate race between Attorney General Josh Hawley and incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill tied at 45 percent. The ballot among the 10 percent of undecided voters favors Hawley by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent.

McCaskill is unpopular across the state, with close to 50 percent of voters having an unfavorable opinion of her, compared to 40 percent who view her as favorable. Hawley’s favorability is nearly even with 36 percent favorable to 37 percent unfavorable.

Nearly half (49%) of Missouri voters support confirming Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, compared to 39 percent who oppose it. When asked if the allegations made against Judge Kavanaugh are credible, or are part of a smear campaign against him, over half (53%) say they believe the allegations are a smear, compared to 47 percent who believe they are credible.

“Across the country, the Kavanaugh confirmation battle has energized voters on both sides of the aisle. Voters in Missouri, including nearly 40 percent of Democrats and half of independents, want to see the Judge confirmed,” said Macy Cambio, Vox Populi Polling’s Managing Director. “Claire McCaskill is running for reelection in a reliably red state that President Trump won by 19 points just two years ago. If she has any chance of holding her seat, she may want to rethink her commitment to vote against Kavanaugh – and against the will of her constituents.”

The survey also found:

· President Trump’s approval rating is 53% | 44%.

· 53 percent of voters believe Republicans will do a better job of continuing to grow the economy and create more jobs.

· Voters split on what will happen if Democrats win back a majority in the House, with 50 percent saying Democrats will provide a check on President Trump, while the other 50 percent say Democrats will create total gridlock.


New Jersey

In Vox Populi’s latest poll, Senate hopeful, Bob Hugin, currently trails Senator Bob Menendez by one point, 35 percent to 36 percent, with 29 percent undecided. When pushed to pick a candidate, 56 percent of undecided voters favor Menendez compared to 44 percent who prefer Hugin.

Senator Menendez’s image is still suffering nearly a year after his criminal trial ended in a mistrial. Just 24 percent of New Jersey voters hold a favorable view of Menendez, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view of the Senator. Hugin, a political newcomer, has 31 percent of voters finding him favorable and 22 percent unfavorable.

Notably, among Independent voters, Hugin leads Menendez by a 15 point margin, 37 percent to 22 percent.

“Years of scandal appear to be catching up to Bob Menendez with just one in four New Jersey voters holding a favorable view of the Senator,” said Macy Cambio, Vox Populi Polling Managing Director. “This race is closer than anyone would have expected going into the election cycle and gives Republicans a rare opportunity to capture a Senate seat in a deep blue state.”

The survey also found:

· 47% of respondents oppose the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court with 38% supporting it and 14% unsure.

· Majority of New Jersey’s active voters believe President Trump should be impeached.


Arizona toplines, Missouri toplines, New Jersey toplines.