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New Polling Less Than A Week to Election Day: AZ, TN & NJ

New Jersey

Senator Bob Menendez widened his lead over Bob Hugin since our last New Jersey poll, conducted in late September, found him leading by one-point (36%/35%). Menendez now leads Hugin by seven points, 43 percent to 36 percent, with 21 percent undecided.

Enthusiasm in the 2018 midterms remains high among New Jersey voters. There is almost no difference in voter intent between Republicans and Democrats, with 89 percent of Democrats and 88 percent of Republicans saying it is very likely they will vote next Tuesday.

However, Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court appears to motivate Democrats more than Republicans. A majority of Democrats (50%) say his confirmation makes them more likely to vote, compared to just 36 percent of Republicans. Independents are the most likely to say his confirmation has no impact on their Election Day turnout.

“Despite an approval rating of less than 25 percent, Senator Menendez has seen his lead increase to seven points over Bob Hugin,” said Macy Cambio, Vox Populi Polling Managing Director. “Both candidates have solidified their bases and this race will come down to persuading the remaining undecided independent voters in the last few days of the election.”

The survey also found:

  • 52% of Democrats believe it is appropriate to confront elected officials over political differences in public places like restaurants and outside of their homes.
  • President Trump’s approval rating stands at 40% | 57%.
  • Governor Murphy’s approval rating stands at 45% | 37%.

Tennessee

In the race for the Tennessee Senate seat, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn leads former Governor Phil Bredesen by seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent with 11 percent undecided. Blackburn’s lead is a six-point improvement since Vox Populi Polling’s last Tennessee poll, conducted in mid-September, that had the race tied at 42 percent.

Congresswoman Blackburn has solidified the Republican base with 85 percent of Republicans now supporting her, a 12-point improvement since our last poll. Bredesen’s image is now underwater (41%/43%) – down nine-points from September (41%/34%).

“In the weeks leading up to Election Day, Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn has rallied Republican voters to help solidify her base,” said Macy Cambio, Vox Populi Polling Managing Director. “With Phil Bredesen’s image now underwater and Blackburn opening up a seven-point lead, the chance of this seat flipping Democratic looks much slimmer than it did just one month ago.”

The survey also found:

  • 53% of Democrats believe it is appropriate to confront elected officials over political differences in public places like restaurants and outside of their homes.
  • 56% of Tennessean voters support sending U.S. troops to the border to deny the caravan of Central American migrants entry to the United States.
  • President Trump’s approval rating stands at 54% | 43%.

Arizona

Congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema leads Congresswoman Martha McSally by five-points, 47 percent to 42 percent with 11 percent undecided. This represents an eight-point flip since Vox Populi’s previous Arizona Senate poll, conducted in early October, that showed McSally up 45 percent to 42 percent.

Despite a steady stream of attacks against Sinema over the last several weeks, she has successfully consolidated her Democratic base with 87 percent now saying they support her compared to 78 percent in early October. Support for McSally among Republicans remains unchanged since our last survey.

Over the last month, McSally’s image has taken a hit and is now upside down with 39 percent of voters holding a favorable view of her compared to 45 percent who hold an unfavorable view. Sinema has seen an uptick in her favorability, from even (39%/39%) at the beginning of October to positive by the end of the month (42%/40%).

The survey also found:

  • Governor Ducey leads David Garcia by seven-points, 48 percent to 41 percent, with 11 percent undecided.
  • 49 percent of Democrats believe it is appropriate to confront elected officials over political differences in public places like restaurants and outside of their homes.
  • President Trump’s approval rating stands at 46% | 51%.

New Jersey toplinesTennessee toplinesand Arizona toplines